Looking at the Poll Numbers

This post has been sitting in draft for a while as I coped with a hard drive failure, but I think the information is still fresh enough to look at. But before I get there, I want to make sure you read Dennis's post on Archbishop Meyers's article in the Catholic Advocate. Go read that one first -- it's getting pushed down the list, but it's much more important than this one -- and then come back.

Done? Great. Let's talk about the recently-released Quinnipiac poll. (That's KWIN-uh-pe-ack, as the press release kindly tells us.) Everyone talks about Corzine and the legislature, but let's also look at how we feel about New Jersey as a whole.

New Jersey voters disapprove 52 - 38 percent of the job Gov. Jon Corzine is doing, among his lowest grades ever, and disapprove 57 - 30 percent of the way he is handling the state budget....

A total of 68 percent of New Jersey voters are "somewhat dissatisfied" or "very dissatisfied" with the way things are going in the Garden State, while 32 percent are "very satisfied" or "somewhat satisfied." Only 10 percent of New Jersey voters say things in the state are better since Corzine became Governor in 2006, while 39 percent say things are worse and 50 percent say they are the same.

In fact, that latter question is one of the few that all groups can agree on: blacks, whites, men, women, Republicans, and Democrats. Check out the numbers. Here's the question:

15. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New Jersey today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?

And here are the numbers. I've broken them up slightly from the press release so that they'll fit the blog template: I kept the row labels and the "Totals" column for each breakout. (If you don't see what I mean, you can look at the press release.

                  Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind  
Very satisfied      3%    2%    2%    3% 
Smwht satisfied    29    25    35    24  
Smwht dissatisfied 35    29    37    37  
Very dissatisfied  33    43    24    36  
DK/NA               1     1     1     1   

                  Tot   Men   Wom 
Very satisfied      3%    3%    2%
Smwht satisfied    29    28    30 
Smwht dissatisfied 35    35    34 
Very dissatisfied  33    33    33 
DK/NA               1     1     1 

                  Tot   Wht   Blk
Very satisfied      3%    3%    1%
Smwht satisfied    29    28    39
Smwht dissatisfied 35    34    32
Very dissatisfied  33    35    25
DK/NA               1     -     3

                              Sub   Ex   
                  Tot  Urban  Urbn  Urbn  
Very satisfied      3%    1%    4%    4% 
Smwht satisfied    29    41    32    22  
Smwht dissatisfied 35    26    38    37  
Very dissatisfied  33    30    26    36  
DK/NA               1     2     1     1  

         Philly      
                  Tot   land   Shore
Very satisfied      3%    2%    1%  
Smwht satisfied    29    26    22   
Smwht dissatisfied 35    31    37   
Very dissatisfied  33    40    40   
DK/NA               1     1     -   

                        Age  Age
                  Tot 18-44   45+
Very satisfied      3%    3%   2%
Smwht satisfied    29    34   27
Smwht dissatisfied 35    35   34
Very dissatisfied  33    28   36
DK/NA               1     -    1

That's a little hard to read, so here are some salient points:

• Two-thirds of New Jerseyans are dissatisfied with the way things are going in their state.


• It doesn't matter whether you ask Republicans (72%) or Independents (73%), and it barely matters if you ask Democrats (61%).


• It doesn't matter if you ask men (68%) or women (67%).


• It barely matters if you ask blacks (57%) or whites (69%).


• It doesn't matter if you polling near Philly or on the Shore.


• Age barely matters.


• The one thing that appears to matter is the kind of area you live in (56% vs. 64% vs. 73% -- with the smallest number of dissatisfied people in the urban areas, believe it or not).

Only a third of Democrats think that things in NJ have gotten worse under Jon Corzine, vs. half of Republicans and 40% of Independents. Since satisfaction rates themselves haven't changed much since Corzine took office in January 2006 (they dipped from about 70% dissatisfied to about 60% and have risen back to 70%), it's more interesting to note the number of people who think things have gotten worse under Corzine:

 
      Jun 11 Feb 20 Dec 11 Feb 28
        2008   2008   2007   2007
Better    10     10     14     20%
Worse     39     35     25     15
The same  50     53     59     62
DK/NA      2      2      2      3

That's enough for now, I suppose. See you on the next post...

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